Skip to main content

SPIKE of short term trading index

Following the significant equity market consolidation or profit taking in Asian markets overnight, the stocks in the states were under enormous pressures from the opening bell in the morning. The declines were broad based and no safe place to hide (only two stocks of S & P 500 index ended in positive territory). However, the sell-off was due to happen considering the historical magnitude of rallies we have witnessed in the last week (>17% in 5 sessions) and potential huge amount tax related portfolio balancing at the year end. Any opportunities to book meaningful gain or any any sign of momentum shift would trigger consolidations. Today's movement is no exception, the broad based indexes steadily went to downward throughout morning session (we can see the ARMS gradually reach the usual upper limit of 2.0, then the index suddenly spiked right over 6.0 around 2:45. After this momentum shift the market went to unstoppable downward spiral. Because of the way that ARMS constructed, we might speculate that it is quite likely somebody or some "big guns" were exiting huge positions real fast willingly or unwillingly.



Popular posts from this blog

Negative Swap Spread

One of most intriguing event, which barely got any attention in the market, was that, for the first time in the history, 30 year USD swap spread dropped into negative territory today. The US treasury 30 year bond traded at 4.027% and the same maturity US dollar swap traded at 4.051%, i.e, 30 year swap spread was about -2.4 bps (see attached Bloomberg chart below) . The 30 year swap rate only go back to early 1994 in Bloomberg data base, in the last 14 years, swap curve was always and should traded at discount to the treasury benchmark, "risk-free" bogey. So what is mean for the equity and credit market? Or most importantly, is the swap market trying or pricing the much deep recession or an early signal of Japanese-style deflation market has feared in 2003? Is the US treasury credit quality put into challenges? Or just the abnormally due to temporary market forces? Isn't the market facing the greatest CREDIT crisis we ever face since the Great Depression? Should we expect...

Updated: Will AAPL be $125-150 by July?

In late March, we saw significant bullish bets on AAPL in option markets. In my post " Will AAPL be $125-150 by July ?", we noticed a huge call spread position (10,000 contract) hit the tape on March 25. AAPL was closed at 106 and change, and has rallied more than 35%, which certainly make the owner of this long bull spread position smile proudly. So how much profit we are looking at right now if the investor exits the position today? At this moment, AAPL July 125 call is traded at about $19.50 and July 150 call around $4.20. Ignoring the transaction cost, each contract is worth about $1,530, so the total position is $15,300,000. Remembering that the initial investment was only about $3,950,000, and so net profit would be $11,350,000. The trade almost triples the initial investment just over two months! Not a small feast considering the limited risk profile.

MBS spread widen at historical levels

The turmoils at FNM and FRE created great anxieties and opportunities for both equities and debt TRADERS. The newly passed housing rescued packages by the Congress and signed the President essentially changed the "implied" to "explicit" US government backings on both quasi agency's outstanding debts. Their spreads to US treasuries have tightened in last few weeks. However, the most liquid 15 yr and 30 yr fixed MBS from Freddie and Fannie were under great pressures in last few days. Using 10 yr swap rate as benchmark, FNCI (15 yr Fannie MBS TBA) was priced to 5.50% with spread of 78 bps, that was 4 times of historical 10 year average (see the first chart). FNCI was traded at the cheapest level since 1998. The 78 bp spread to the swap was about four sigmas of the mean. FNCL (30 yr Fannie MBS TBA) was also trade at the lowest level that we have not seen in the last decade (second chart). Comparing to other investment alternatives, current fixed MBS prov...