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Showing posts from February, 2009

Is crude about to go higher?

Since hitting the multi-year low $33.87 measured by front month future contracts trading on ICE on 12/19/08, Western Texas Intermediate ( WTI ) light sweet has been stuck at a trading range between $34 and $48 so far this year. Today front month contract was closed at $33.98, almost exactly the same lowest level occurred two months ago. The most interesting question, intriguing many commodity and equity investors alike, is this the temporary bottom or just the beginning of another leg downward spiral to further unwinding excess bullish positions that had built up prior to the July peak last year . If we examine the current future term structure, we may come out with the conclusions that likely outcome in next few weeks WTI would go higher than lower. Since the term structure shifted from backwardation in late July last year to current contango , the spread between front month and 2 nd month contracts has increased steadily. Today the spread reached highest level, about $8 (see